Victorious: Clinton and McCain

Hillary Clinton, then, somehow defied pundits and pollsters to snatch a win that just 24 hours earlier had seemed all but impossible.
Here's talkshow host Arnie Arnesen's fascinating (and funny) take on how the New York senator did it.

On the Republican side, John McCain pushed Mitt Romney into the silver medal position. See the full results here.

I was at Barack Obama's event. His supporters had come for a victory party, but as the evening wore on it became clear that Clinton's early lead would hold. The young crowd looked deflated; the "Fire it Up!" "Ready to Go!" chants were not as convincing as the previous night's.

Flanked by his wife, Obama was gracious in defeat. If shell-shocked, he didn't show it. (In a measure of how unexpected the result was, several reporters we heard from had already written their "Obama Wins Big" story, and were just waiting for the polls to come in so they could fill in the numbers before filing.)

I'm up in the Granite State with the New York Community Media Alliance, formerly know as IPA-NY. (See here for details on how the trip came about.) Yesterday morning, long before the results came through, we met with Andrew Smith, a pollster at the University of New Hampshire. Smith, who like everyone expected Obama to walk it, ran through the pre-election polls - Obama's meteoric rise, McCain's recovery, Clinton's stutter, etc. And he gave us his colorful opinion on some of the mistakes each candidate has made, and the hurdles they need to overcome to stay in the race. Here's some choice bits:

Smith said Giuliani's campaign was "horrible," and that he'd been arrogant to think he could get somewhere without old fashioned campaigning (he flew to New Hampshire for an short speech now and again but then got out of town). Smith compared Giuliani to a man who's about to walk off a cliff but is too stubborn to change direction.

McCain's chief problem, said Smith, is his stance on immigration which has dried up his fund-raising; Romney's, "his inability to be a skillful enough politician to change his position and make it believable."

Clinton, meanwhile, "has the worst media handling people of all the campaigns." Smith said that he'd spoken to reporters who'd received calls from Clinton's people demanding they retract a certain story and threatening to block a reporter's access to the White House if their boss is president. "The way they [Clinton's campaign] treated the press [in New Hampshire] was her biggest mistake," he said. "There was a level of control and paranoia in that campaign that’s scary." Because of this treatment, said Smith, reporters never gave her a break.

Obama's biggest issue is his lack of substance, thinks Smith. "[He's] like the meringue of American politics, light and fluffy, looks good, but when you eat it you wonder was it was." It a criticism, of course, that's been made before. But having heard Obama speak twice this week, I think it rings true. He spoke powerfully, as you'd expect, yet he was strangely boring and repetitive, hardly touching on his would-be policies or how he'd make them a reality. All talk ("change" "hope" "tomorrow") and no substance to speak of, may not wash for long.

Obama and company will soon be in New York ("Super Tuesday" is on Feb. 5). If you wish you vote, you need to register by Friday.

On a local level, here in the west Bronx, some community groups are using the hype to encourage local residents to take more of an interest in politics. On Saturday, for example, an event's being held at the Gambian Society on Jerome Avenue. The aim is to educate the borough's African population on the importance of voting.

Campaigning in New Hampshire

I’m currently in New Hampshire, covering the primaries with a group of eight other reporters and editors from New York City’s ethic and community press (in all, I told, there’s something like 1,200 media people here). The trip’s been put on by New York Community Media Alliance as part of their 2008 Elections Fellowship. We’re fortunate to have a knowledgeable guide in Feet in Two Worlds' John Rudolph, who has been driving us around as we follow the candidates on the campaign trail.

Each candidate and their staff spent the weekend and Monday jumping from town to town, putting on last-ditch rallies, as they try and pick up last-minute votes, and decide the undecided. They’re not really saying anything new at this stage, except, perhaps, to refute a rival’s latest attack and launch one of their own.

Yesterday, we caught up with caught up with John McCain in Exeter, Mitt Romney in Bedford, and Barack Obama (pictured) in Concord. Some 1,500 people showed up for the Obama event. There was just 300 at McCain’s and maybe 500 at Romney’s. So, first things first, the Democratic candidates are getting a lot more attention than their Republican counterparts. (We were hoping to see Clinton too, but there was a mile-long line of car-traffic to get into her event.)

McCain was a little lackluster in his speech. He looked tired – it was one of seven rallies he was holding that day – and kept things brief. Still, there was the odd moment of fire: “I'll get Osama Bin Laden if I have to follow him to the gates of hell!” (It’s the kind of talk that sounds much more convincing coming from McCain, a war hero, than, say, our current president).

If McCain was folksy and homey, Romney, all polished, professional and dapper, was the opposite. He stressed how he his experiences as a successful businessman would help him get things done, and turn around a Washington “that is fundamentally broken.” (Washington being rotten at the core, and the need for a change in direction, were common talking points through all three speeches).

Obama's event, in a school gymnasium, was the most impressive. Even the build-up was electric. Dozens of volunteers, mostly teens and early-twenty somethings, danced, high-fived each other, and screamed Obama’s signature chant: "Fire it up!" "Ready to go!" A little farcical? Perhaps. But electric all the same. By the time Obama was introduced by his wife, the crowd (a younger, more fresh-faced lot than Romney or McCain’s turnouts) had been whipped into a frenzy. Obama talked at length about hope and change, themes central to his campaign. "We’re at a defining point in our history," he said. "The time for change is now." He also hit back at claims his policy ideas are vague and ambiguous.

Today is election day; the results are out tonight. For more, check out Talking Points Memo. According to the latest polls, Obama’s lead over Clinton is growing. The Republican primary is likely to be closer, although McCain is the favorite. We'll have more tomorrow.

Photo: J. Fergusson