Get Your Data Fix While You Await the 2010 Census Results

While thoughts are on the Census and making sure we all get counted, the Furman Center at NYU has just published its annual State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report, using a variety of demographic and real estate data. This year’s report, in addition to updating general demographic, housing and health trends, takes a look at the recent building boom that came to screeching halt in late 2008, in addition to mortgage lending trends and immigration data.

I’ll spare everyone the details on the general demographic portrait of the west Bronx, where we rank at the bottom of the City’s community districts in median income and housing affordability. Instead, here are a few interesting maps and some of the Bronx-centric highlights from the report:

Bronx News Roundup, May 14

Sorry for the late posting today. But do check out the latest Norwood News, which hits the street today. We’ll start with the heavy news and end on a lighter note.

More information on the death of Nimzay Aponte, a 23-year-old woman who was stabbed to death in a Mott Haven park on Tuesday. The Daily News reports that Aponte met Raymond Dennis, 35, online and they had chatted via instant messenger, though she refused to meet him. He tracked her down and spotted her on Tuesday in St. Mary's Park with a man, someone who was enrolled in a job-hunting seminar with her. The two were taking a break from the seminar when Dennis stabbed both Aponte and then the man. Paramedics raced the victims to Lincoln Hospital, where Aponte later died.

A Bronx man was shot and killed in Buffalo less than one day after graduating from the University of Buffalo. Javon Jackson, 23, graduated on Saturday, May 12, and was shot on Sunday at 3 a.m.

This morning a 9-year-old female yellow lab-chow mix ran onto the Major Deegan Expressway and was hit by a car close to exit 3. Soon after, another dog, apparently her son, ran to her rescue and would not let officers near her. Then, the dog ran off leading cops on a high-speed chase. The owner of the two dogs saw it all on T.V., and she went to animal care and control in East Harlem where the dogs were being held. The female dog is now at a pet hospital with a broken leg, but she’s expected to recover.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at NYU’s graduation ceremony yesterday at Yankees Stadium.

Newsday features several overlooked, but beautiful, places to visit in New York City and lists Vancortlandt Park and Poe Cottage as two of them.

Apartment Building Sales Plummet in the Bronx (plus some bonus demographics)

A new housing report for real estate firm Massey Knakal shows the dramatic drop in the number of sales of apartment buildings across the City, especially in the Bronx. In an article in Crain's New York Business, the Chairman of Massey Knakal blames the drop on the reduction in supply, as "discretionary sellers are not putting their property on the market," but he warns that in the coming years prices will drop as distressed sellers will have no other option but to sell for less.

Meanwhile, the reports authors acknowledge the Bronx market is riskier than the other boroughs:

Brooklyn and Queens held up better than the Bronx in part because during uncertain economic times, there is a “flight to quality,” said John Cicero, managing principal at Miller Cicero. “Investors want to go to secure, more established neighborhoods.” Institutional investors didn’t start buying multi-family buildings in the Bronx until about six years ago, noted Mr. Knakal.

University Neighborhood Housing Program also tracks sales of residential apartment buildings in the Bronx, and we had similar findings. Prices haven't dropped, but the number of sales has gone from a peak of 260 in the first half of 2007, to 138 in the second half of 2007, to 132 in the first of 2008 and 64 in the second half of 2008. A drop in prices can be expected for the exact reason Mr. Knakal mentioned, as is the case with Botanical Square and a few other properties bought at the peak of the market by private equity investor Hudson Realty Capital.

For a great long term perspective on real estate booms and bust in New York City neighborhoods, don't miss the Furman Center's latest State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods, which was released by the NYU research center just this month. Among the many tidbits you'll discover is that certain Bronx neighborhoods fared well during the last bust in the early 1990s, perhaps because they were still making up for the devastation of earlier decades (page 14). There is a related fascinating case study of the Morrisania/Crotona area (Bronx Community District 3) on page 20 showing price appreciations through every boom and bust period since 1974 (though they were pretty much starting from ground zero).

There is also a section on sustainability showing how the Bronx produces a lot of waste per capita and recycles very little.

At the end there is the heavy demographic and housing data, mostly based on 2005-2007 American Community Survey from the U.S. Census. Many of the findings are the same old story: Bronx neighborhoods have the highest rates of poverty, lowest educational attainment, lowest homeownership rates, the youngest population, etc.

But there was at least one surprise: none of the neighborhoods with the highest incidence of elevated blood levels in children are in the Bronx. Instead, neighborhoods with converted manufacturing loft space (SoHo and Williamsburg) rank tops in the City.

One other interesting stat: the three most densely populated community districts outside of Manhattan are in the West Bronx. Here are the top 10 in the City with the number of persons per square mile:

1. Upper East Side (MN) - 105,900
2. Lower East Side/Chinatown (MN) - 99,100
3. Morningside Heights/Hamilton Heights (MN) - 98,800
4. Stuyvesant Town/Turtle Bay (MN) - 88,100
5. Central Harlem (MN) - 86,100
6. Kingsbridge Heights/Bedford (BX 7) - 77,000
7. Highbridge/Concourse (BX 4) - 75,800
8. Washington Heights/Inwood (MN) - 73,700
9. Fordham/University Heights (BX 5) - 73,000
10. Upper West Side (MN) - 66,000

NYU Report Documents Credit Crunch's arrival in 2007

On Monday, the Furman Center at NYU released a report, Declining Credit & Growing Disparities: Key Findings from HMDA 2007. The report uses recently released Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to analyze trends in home purchase and refinance lending activity between 2006 and 2007. The report highlights changes in the high cost (sub-prime) and prime markets, and demonstrates these effects on different racial groups. Here's a summary of the report findings from the authors:

Much of the media’s focus has been on signs of tightening credit over the past few months, but our report illustrates that the flow of credit has been slowing for the housing markets for well over a year. In New York City, we saw dramatic declines in home purchase and refinance activity from 2006 to 2007 (14% and 31% respectively)... Moreover, we see troubling signs that New York City's black and Hispanic borrowers are bearing the brunt of this decline in credit, and it is not simply evidence of the subprime market drying up. The number of prime loans awarded to black and Hispanic borrowers fell by 23% and 15% respectively between 2006 and 2007. By contrast, the number of prime loans issued to white borrowers rose by 4% while the number issued to Asians increased by 18%. If these trends continue, and black and Hispanic borrowers are disproportionately affected by the tightening credit market, it may mean less investment in communities of color, an undoing of recent progress in bringing homeownership opportunities to black and Hispanic New Yorkers, and a reshaping of who is buying homes in New York.

Based on the report, the Bronx had the largest drop in home purchase loan originations (-24.9%) of all five boroughs, including the largest drop in prime home purchase loans (-5.4%). It also tied Brooklyn for the largest drop in refinance loan originations (-33.2). In addition to these signs of credit drying up, the data on loans actually being issued isn't good either: for 2007, the Bronx had the highest percent of home purchase loans that would be considered high cost (17.4%), and when you think high-cost, think bad sub-prime products. Here's that chart from the report:

Keep in mind that this data is for 2007 and the changes from 2006. You could make an argument that 2006 was the peak bubble year, or at least late 2006 to early 2007. I suspect the drop-offs on lending in 2008 will be much more dramatic.

On a somewhat related note, the Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) has completed a study showing the rate at which mortgage borrowers find themselves in default is not primarily related to whether they are poor or prosperous but rather is tied to the type of mortgage products they were sold.

University Woods: Restore a Discarded Treasure

This opinion piece in the Mount Hope Monitor by Greg Fuchs, the development director for the New York Rowing Association and a Morris Heights resident, calls for the renovation of University Woods Park, a long neglected and troubled spot not far from the Harlem River. (Photo by Greg Fuch)

It also includes some fascinating history about BCC's nearby campus...

University Woods: Restore a Discarded Treasure

Recently, my wife and I moved to the Bronx after living in Brooklyn for more than a decade. She teaches at Bronx Community College (BCC). I left working downtown to direct the development of the New York Rowing Association (NYRA), which is changing the lives of youth by promoting healthy development and social responsibility.

Last year we purchased a modest wood-framed house built on a steep slope where Undercliff Avenue splits from Sedgwick Avenue, in Morris Heights. The front door is 15-feet above the sidewalk. From the elevated stoop I have a bird’s eye view of NYRA’s home, the Peter Jay Sharp Boathouse, floating on the Harlem River on the shore of Swindler Cove Park, a former dumping ground that’s become a restored wetlands teeming with animal and plant life. This idyllic cove was created through the chutzpah of Bette Midler’s New York Restoration Project.

My daily trek from Morris Heights to Inwood takes me north on Sedgwick Avenue, west on 179th Street, then north on Cedar Avenue until I hit Fordham Road. Then it’s over the University Bridge. Walking on Cedar I pass University Woods Park. I have become increasingly fascinated with this majestic park filled with enough trees to earn its name. The city’s Parks Department describes it as "a forested area situated on a steep slope overlooking the Harlem River. It commands an impressive view of Upper Manhattan, the Hudson River, and the New Jersey Palisades."

... more here in the Monitor.