Bronx Adds 52,458 People: Census Data

The interactive map below, provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, charts the population change in New York. According to Census data collected last year, the Bronx gained 52,458 people over the last 10 years to bring the borough's population total up to 1,385,108, an increase of 3.9 percent.

The Bronx's growth outpaced that of Queens (+0.1%), Brooklyn (+2.1%) and Manhattan (+3.2%). (Totals for Staten Island weren't readily available.)

New York City as a whole saw an increase of 2.1 percent to put the total number of Big Apple residents at 8,175,133.

In reaction to the report, Bronx Congressman Jose E. Serrano said he thinks -- no, he's "certain" -- the Bronx population wasn't completely accounted for due to the fears and non-participation of the borough's many undocumented residents.

In a press release, Serrano said: "I am pleased to see that New York City is growing including a healthy increase in the numbers of people in the Bronx. I am certain that there was a slight undercount in the Bronx, as there are still many undocumented who are fearful of visits by government officials. I’m also concerned that other areas of our great city were undercounted in the Census, and that this will have an impact on our federal funding going forward.

“That said, the increase in our Bronx community by more than 50,000 people shows that our borough is on the rise and is a desirable place to live and do business."

A Census Preview for NYC

Next month the U.S. Census Bureau will release detailed data from the 2010 decennial census. We will be able to access data down to the tract level via the American Fact Finder tool (just updated to be more user friendly) on the Census website, but only the information gathered from what used to be called the short form. No longer in use are the “long forms” that a sampling of the population got in 2000 or 1990 and were used to give estimates on in depth questions such as time traveled to work, country of birth, and sources of income.

The Census Bureau has switched to a new system to gather this type of data called the American Community Survey (ACS) which began in 2005. The ACS is an annual sampling of the population to gather the same type of data that used to be collected on the so-called long forms every 10 years. One main difference, however, is that the sample size in any given year of the ACS is too small to be reliable below the county level.

What the Census Bureau has done is to combine ACS data into three- and five-year pools to make better estimates. Three-year estimates (e.g., 2006-2009 data) have been available for a couple of years, but only down to the PUMA level (Public Use Microdata Areas, in New York City also called Sub-Borough Areas which closely align to Community Districts with some exceptions).

Five-year estimates were just released on the AFF site last month and allow users to get detailed data at the tract level. While this represents the average characteristics over the 5-year period of time of data collection, the larger sample size means the data is more accurate. It also allows an ongoing look at neighborhood demographic change instead of waiting 10 years for new data.

Here is the difference between the data sets according to the Census Bureau.

I downloaded the new five-year (2005-2009) data for New York City last week and made a couple of maps. For now I just plotted the PUMA level (Community Board approximations) data and will work on some tract level maps in the near future. Consider it a preview of the barrage of Census data we should be getting over the next few months. I tried to pick some data-sets that we are not as used to seeing. Click on any of the map images to view larger versions.

Percent of Population that did not move in the previous 12 months:

While homeowners are less likely to move than renters, the foreclosure crisis has likely had a strong effect on this data, causing many homeowner families to move who would not have otherwise.

Percent of Population under the age of 18:

Percent of Households that speak English and another language at home:

Here it’s evident that the largest concentrations of bilingual and polyglot households in the City are in the Bronx and Queens. The highest percentage in the City is in Kingsbridge Heights/Mosholu (more or less Bronx Community Board 7).

More maps after the jump...

Bronx News Roundup, Dec. 15

Every news outlet under the sun has coverage of Pedro Espada, Jr.'s indictment, as the now-former Senate Majority Leader and his son were charged yesterday with six counts of embezzlement and conspiracy. Here's what we posted last night.

Here's the Times' take, which reminds readers of how once upon a time, in 2006, Espada had accused his then-rival Ruben Diaz, Sr., of more or less the same things he's now being indicted for.

The Daily News' Celeste Katz includes a response from the Espada camp: "Today is a sad day for Soundview and a sad day for the Espada family. Senator Espada and his son deny any wrongful doing and we intend to fight the charges in court."

Both men are schedule to appear at a federal court in Brooklyn this afternoon. We'll have more on that later.

In other news:

Employees from the Bronx Psychiatric Center rallied yesterday against proposed layoffs at the facility, which they say will only make things less safe for patients and workers.

One of the city's largest chapters of the carpenters union, which represented workers in the Bronx and part of Manhattan, was officially shut down yesterday after a slew of corruption scandals.

A Bronx man was sentenced to five years in prison for selling cocaine in upstate Watertown, NY.

New Census data shows that more New York City residents are getting college degrees than ever before. The number of graduates in the Bronx increased by 2.9 percent since 2000.

Terrible conditions at an unemployment office in Mott Haven--including floods, rats and a bed bug infestation--make the spot even more depressing for the jobless who have to wait there.

HPD is still trying to get LNR Property Corp., the servicer to the dilapidated Milbank buildings, to cough up the $2.5 million in repairs that a court ordered the group to pay in September.

The Post takes a look at what our lawmakers in Washington are spending on their pet projects--aka "pork" spending--this year. Bronx Congressman Jose E. Serrano scored $500,000 for transportation improvements at the Bronx Zoo.

On the local level, a number of state lawmakers, including Bronx Assemblyman Jose Rivera, have found a loophole that allows them to collect pension checks while still in office.

The man accused of shooting an off-duty Bronx narcotics detective over the weekend was released on $5,000 bail.

Police will start using hidden cameras to videotape suspects in precincts in the Bronx and Brooklyn, stating next year.

Envisioning the Future of the Red Zone

University Neighborhood Housing Program's

2009 Affordable Housing Forum

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

8:30 - 11:00 a.m.

Fordham University’s Rose Hill Campus, The Bronx

Faculty Lounge, McGinley Center

The same west Bronx neighborhoods that were at the epicenter of community organizing, community development and preservation activities during the past thirty years now provide much of the City’s affordable housing in the form of privately owned, rent stabilized properties with relatively low rents. While maintaining affordable neighborhoods in New York City is good news, there is a convergence of other statistical indicators for the same geographic area that demonstrates signs of distress. The frequency with which our neighborhoods here in the west Bronx color red on maps indicating various forms of housing, social and economic distress gave us the idea of this forum, Envisioning the Future of the Red Zone, where we will address this convergence of negative indicators and offer a framework for discussing what it means for these neighborhoods going forward.

Following a presentation of neighborhood and borough level data and maps (including brand new neighborhood data from the 2008 Housing and Vacancy Survey), University Neighborhood Housing Program will host an interactive panel and audience discussion that will focus on the ways that the institutions, lenders, public agencies and community groups that are responsible for the successful community development efforts of the past three decades can work together to envision a future that builds upon that success for the Red Zone.

Panel:
• Roger Hayes, UNHP Board (Moderator)
• Raquel Batista, Northern Manhattan Coalition for Immigrant Rights
• Nancy Biberman, WHEDCo
• Peter Mosbacher, Amalgamated Bank
• Xavier Rodriguez, Bronx Community Board 5 District Manager

Please respond to UNHP by June 8. The forum is free, but space is limited. You can fax this form to us at (718) 933-3624, email your response to mail [at] unhp.org, or call us at (718) 933-3101.

Bronx News Roundup Feb. 3

Lots of housing news today:

The State Assembly yesterday passed a series of bills designed to strengthen rent-regulation laws. In previous years, the legislation would have thrown out by the Republican majority. Now the Democrats are in charge things are expected to change. It'll be interesting to see what State Senator Pedro Espada (who's chair of the Senate Housing Committee) does. In the past, he's been criticized by tenant rights groups for being too "landlord friendly."

More than 50 percent of Bronx residents worry they'll be priced out of the borough by rising rents.

A rezoning proposal could transform a 30-block area near the Yankee Stadium. Under the plan, many of the auto repair shops and parking lots that dominate the neighborhood will be replaced by apartments buildings and acres of retail space.

A 128-unit apartment building, aimed at low-incomes families and those leaving the shelter system, has sprung up on Freeman Street in a neighborhood that come on leaps and bounds in the last 20 years. Intervale Green, as the building's called, was built using a "green" design. Tenants will receive a free computer, Internet access, and other benefits.

Bronx residents can voice their opinions about proposed MTA service cuts and fare increases at a meeting this Wednesday.

The Bronx is becoming a mecca for immigrants from across the globe.

In his weekly column, Bob Kappsatter says Assemblyman Jose Rivera, the former Democratic party chairman, may run for borough president. If he does (which would certainly spice things up) son Joel would abandon his own bid and run for a third City Council term, says Kappstatter, where he could face a strong challenge from Radame Perez of Mastermind Management. More about Mastermind here.

Awaiting the 2010 Census: An End of the Year Demographic Teaser!

I know things are slow in the West Bronx news-wise, so in addition to Jordan's editorial request, here's an end of the year treat for all of you data-geeks like me:

The Census Bureau, in addition to gearing up for 2010, has been keeping busy all decade long with the American Community Survey which tracks smaller samples of the population in various geographies. Because of the small sample size, much of the data isn’t so reliable, and for New York City, there isn’t much below the county level. Recently, the Census’s American Fact Finder website has released 3-year estimates for 2005-2007. While the data isn’t quite as current as the 2007 ACS, it has a much larger sample size than the one year ACS and should be considered more reliable (although still nowhere close to the decennial census).

I took a quick look at some of the data on immigration to uncover certain trends to expect in 2010, and to verify some of what we see in our neighborhoods everyday. Overall, the foreign-born population in the Bronx is estimated to have jumped 12.5% since 2000 from 385,827 to 434,251. Foreign-born residents now likely comprise 31.7% of the borough’s population, up from 29.0% in 2000. Citywide, the Bronx now is estimated to have 14.3% of all foreign born residents, up from 13.4% in 2000.

Where are the big changes coming from? Counteracting drop-offs in the Irish- and Yugoslavian-born populations are dramatic increases in West African, Dominican and Mexican populations (no big surprises here). Almost half of the 60,500 West African-born NYC residents live in the Bronx, including 63% of those born in Ghana (estimates show about 12,600 Ghanaian-born Bronx residents).

In 2000, Manhattan still had more Dominican-born residents than the Bronx, but there is little doubt that this is still the case. Estimates show the Dominican-born population in the Bronx has grown from 124,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 in recent years, while Manhattan’s share has dropped from 125,000 to 109,000 (many fleeing the rapidly rising rents in upper Manhattan). About 39% of all NYC residents born in the D.R. live in the Bronx.

It comes as little surprise that the Mexican-born population in the Bronx has grown dramatically. In fact, estimates show it has virtually doubled since 2000 to over 38,000. The overall number of Central American-born Bronx residents has shot up a third from 46,000 to nearly 62,000, or about 22% of the City’s total.

The Bangladeshi-born population has also swelled from about 4,000 to an estimated 7,500. In addition, the relatively small Middle Eastern-born community (referred to on the Census as Western Asia) has grown 75% from 2,250 to almost 4,000.

Feel free to post any questions about this data or a specific question about a country I didn’t mention. Happy New Year, everyone!

Update
I posted this in the comment section based on a question about changes in the Puerto Rican population:

I was able to pull out corresponding tables from 2000 and the 2005-2007 ACS estimates called "HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN BY SPECIFIC ORIGIN" which shows us what people are identifying as (as opposed to where they were born). According to these data sets, the Bronx had a net gain of 215 residents who identified as Puerto Rican. As a percentage of total residents this is a drop of .6%, and as a percentage of all Latinos, this is a drop of 3.6%. Across the five boroughs, Manhattan and Brooklyn lost 2,500 and 10,300 Puerto Ricans respectively, while Queens and Staten Island gained 2,500 and 6,900 respectively. Obviously, the biggest changes are in Brooklyn and Staten Island, the latter of which increased its self-identifying Puerto Rican population by nearly 25%.

Overall there was a net loss of 3,323 Puerto Ricans in NYC, while the surrounding counties (Fairfield in CT, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic and Union in NJ, and Dutchess, Nassau, Orange, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester in NY) picked up about 20,000. Westchester had the biggest numerical increase at close to 7,000 (similar to the increase in Staten Island) while Morris, Bergen and Orange counties has the largest percentage increases.

From another angle, Puerto Ricans comprise a smaller share of all Latinos in virtually every county since 2000 -- the exceptions being Morris County NJ and Manhattan, where it's simply a case of other Latinos leaving faster than Puerto Ricans. The biggest estimated growth among Latino groups in the Bronx? In order: Domincans +80,772, Mexicans +27,216, Ecuadorians +10,415, and Hondurans +6,877.

Any other questions?

Surprise: More people move out of NYC than move in!

The New York City Comptroller’s Office recently issued a report on New York’s Delicate Migration Balance, co-authored by Frank Braconi (formerly of the Citizen’s Housing and Planning Council) and Farid Heydarpour. Based on the 2005 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census, the report presents some surprising information on who is leaving the City, who is coming to the City, and how the City’s population still manages to expand.

2005 was the first year that detailed information on migration was available in a non-decennial census year -- it's nice not to have to wait until 2010 for this type of information. UNHP also used this same data earlier this year to show migration patterns within New York counties, and how the median income of those moving to the Bronx was actually lower than those of current Bronx residents.

What is perhaps most surprising about the 2005 data is that more people left the City than arrived here, especially domestically. International immigration and (more significantly) a high birth rate are what keep the City’s population growing.

Overall, there is a high level of turn-over in the City’s population – about 4% per year, meaning more than 1/3 of the population will change over the course of a decade. Much of this turnover, both incoming and outgoing, is comprised of highly educated folks.

Some interesting trends arise when looking at the income levels of those who decide to leave the City. In sheer numbers, more low-income households (annual income under $40,000) leave the City, but only because this income category comprises 40% of all NYC households; their actual out-migration rate is average.

While there are much fewer moderate-income households ($40,000 - $59,999), they are actually much more likely to move out of the City, and often move to the South (the Carolinas, Florida and Georgia), where many of them buy homes (for a lot less than what they cost here). They are also more likely to be between 30 and 45 years old and single.

“Typically, they are young householders with a high school diploma and some college experience… Their high exit rates may reflect a regional economy that creates relatively better job opportunities for people at the high end and the low end of the educational spectrum.”

High-income households ($140,000 – $249,999) were also more likely to leave the City, but most often stay in the region, often moving to the NYC suburbs, and frequently continuing to work in the City, while their children attend suburban schools.

Middle-income households ($60,000 - $139,999), on the other hand, were less likely to leave, as were very wealthy households ($125,000 and above). It would be interesting to link the trends of these income groups to housing prices.

In terms of those who are migrating into the City, a whopping 62% of the 127,000 of the domestic arrivals in 2005 were aged 20 to 39, the bulk being in the 20 to 29 category. Those arriving are also more likely to be highly educated that current residents, and about half of them are white. They are also more likely not to have children.

But that doesn’t mean young people aren’t leaving the City. While the percentage of those leaving that are young is smaller, the total number of young people leaving is actually greater than those arriving.

One shortcoming of the data that the authors acknowledge is the undercounting of immigrants, especially the undocumented. While impossible to know the exact number, much of the growth in the City’s population that is visible through lower housing vacancy rates is due to this influx of undocumented immigrants.

Bronx Renters Shelling Out Highest Percent of Paycheck for Rent

In today's New York Times, Manny Fernandez takes a look at the recently released census data to confirm the trend that most of us already know about -- more Bronx renters pay half their income on rent than renters in the other boroughs.

The article, Housing Takes Bigger Bite of New Yorkers’ Incomes, Census Data Shows, reports that about 1/3 of all Bronx renters pay at least half of their income on rent. (2005 Housing and Vacancy Survey data shows that the percentages are much higher in the West Bronx.)

Fernandez does a good job at reporting on how this trend affects real families, in real ways like making the decisions to give up cable tv, or (much worse) cutting back on grocery shopping. He also cites the recent UNHP report that showed newcomers to the Bronx making less than current residents, according to the 2005 data. I've started taking a look at the 2006 data, and it shows that this trend is continuing, but also that all of the other boroughs except Brooklyn are experiencing an influx of lower-income families, albeit to a lesser degree than the Bronx.

The article also touches on the homeowners who are shouldering similar burdens. While it mentions Brooklyn having the highest percent of homeowners paying 50% of their income on mortgage costs at 31.0%, the Bronx is in a virtual tie at 30.7%. All of these numbers will most likely rise as adjustable mortages made in the past two or three years reset at higher rates.

Earlier in the week, City Limits went right at one of the main reasons renters are finding themselves in this squeeze in WHEN WALL ST. COMES TO 139TH ST., TENANTS WORRY. While profiling the plight of tenants in a Harlem building, the strategy of newer Wall Street-backed apartment building owners is having major effects throughout neighborhoods like the West Bronx, where owners look to raise rents through a variety of means. Since the demand is so high, they are still able to get away with this. But when you put two and two together (the Times article and the City Limits article), you have to wonder where all of this is going. Tenants will eventually reach a breaking point where they can't afford the rent increases, and then what happens?

On a similar theme, NY1 also has a piece on the housing crunch. According to their recent polling:

Nearly 80 percent of residents who've lived in the city 15 years or more say they're spending more of their income on rent than they did back in 1992, and the crunch is happening across the board.

At least two-thirds of every economic, racial and geographic group said they're giving up more of their paycheck to rent or mortgage. And more than 60 percent of New Yorkers saying it's chipping away at their overall quality of life.