Some thoughts on Census 2010 Population Changes

I was eager to get into the 2010 Census data at the tract level, but am a bit disappointed that the new American Fact Finder website has been down since Friday. Instead, I was able to download a limited amount of new data from the Department of City Planning website and look at the most basic of statistics, namely population change since 2010 (though the Mayor is officially challenging them).

The map below (click on the image to enlarge) shows changes in population by census tract since 2000 for NYC, not as a percent but by the actual number of counted residents. Much of the city shows in light yellow meaning the population stayed mostly the same (up or down by less than 150 residents). The reddish areas show decreases in population while the greenish areas show increases, with the intensity of the color matching the larger decline/increase.

While I can't back this up with the actual data until the AFF site gets back up and running, it will be interesting to see how strong the effects of gentrification in Washington Heights, Inwood, and Astoria were on the large drops in population there. Was the replacing of larger families with children with young single folks and smaller families a big factor in driving down the population in those neighborhoods?

Also, there are smaller but noticeable drops in parts of Brooklyn and Queens (and even a few tracts in Wakefield) where there have been large numbers of foreclosures. There could be some kind of correlation.

I've also been reminded of an older post of mine on how more people move out of NYC annually than move in, and that the growth in population has been spurred on by international immigrant and more significantly, a high birth rate.

A few other news sites have also brought up some of these questions:

In this article on DNAinfo.com, Queens College demographer Andrew Beveridge agrees that the cost of housing has had an impact on the drop in population in upper Manhattan, but also thinks an there was likely an undercount of undocumented immigrants.

WNYC investigates the first documented drop in the City's black population, mostly in Brooklyn.

AMNewYork believes that residents, especially in Queens, are partly to blame for not returning their forms. 

And Greg David of Crain's briefly discusses the lower-than-expected results here, though I am wondering his thoughts on the Bronx adding more people than any other borough this decade after he led off his "Who will save the Bronx?" piece in August by pointing out that we are the only borough to not eclipse our peak in population from 1970.

A Census Preview for NYC

Next month the U.S. Census Bureau will release detailed data from the 2010 decennial census. We will be able to access data down to the tract level via the American Fact Finder tool (just updated to be more user friendly) on the Census website, but only the information gathered from what used to be called the short form. No longer in use are the “long forms” that a sampling of the population got in 2000 or 1990 and were used to give estimates on in depth questions such as time traveled to work, country of birth, and sources of income.

The Census Bureau has switched to a new system to gather this type of data called the American Community Survey (ACS) which began in 2005. The ACS is an annual sampling of the population to gather the same type of data that used to be collected on the so-called long forms every 10 years. One main difference, however, is that the sample size in any given year of the ACS is too small to be reliable below the county level.

What the Census Bureau has done is to combine ACS data into three- and five-year pools to make better estimates. Three-year estimates (e.g., 2006-2009 data) have been available for a couple of years, but only down to the PUMA level (Public Use Microdata Areas, in New York City also called Sub-Borough Areas which closely align to Community Districts with some exceptions).

Five-year estimates were just released on the AFF site last month and allow users to get detailed data at the tract level. While this represents the average characteristics over the 5-year period of time of data collection, the larger sample size means the data is more accurate. It also allows an ongoing look at neighborhood demographic change instead of waiting 10 years for new data.

Here is the difference between the data sets according to the Census Bureau.

I downloaded the new five-year (2005-2009) data for New York City last week and made a couple of maps. For now I just plotted the PUMA level (Community Board approximations) data and will work on some tract level maps in the near future. Consider it a preview of the barrage of Census data we should be getting over the next few months. I tried to pick some data-sets that we are not as used to seeing. Click on any of the map images to view larger versions.

Percent of Population that did not move in the previous 12 months:

While homeowners are less likely to move than renters, the foreclosure crisis has likely had a strong effect on this data, causing many homeowner families to move who would not have otherwise.

Percent of Population under the age of 18:

Percent of Households that speak English and another language at home:

Here it’s evident that the largest concentrations of bilingual and polyglot households in the City are in the Bronx and Queens. The highest percentage in the City is in Kingsbridge Heights/Mosholu (more or less Bronx Community Board 7).

More maps after the jump...

Get Your Data Fix While You Await the 2010 Census Results

While thoughts are on the Census and making sure we all get counted, the Furman Center at NYU has just published its annual State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods report, using a variety of demographic and real estate data. This year’s report, in addition to updating general demographic, housing and health trends, takes a look at the recent building boom that came to screeching halt in late 2008, in addition to mortgage lending trends and immigration data.

I’ll spare everyone the details on the general demographic portrait of the west Bronx, where we rank at the bottom of the City’s community districts in median income and housing affordability. Instead, here are a few interesting maps and some of the Bronx-centric highlights from the report:

Envisioning the Future of the Red Zone

University Neighborhood Housing Program's

2009 Affordable Housing Forum

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

8:30 - 11:00 a.m.

Fordham University’s Rose Hill Campus, The Bronx

Faculty Lounge, McGinley Center

The same west Bronx neighborhoods that were at the epicenter of community organizing, community development and preservation activities during the past thirty years now provide much of the City’s affordable housing in the form of privately owned, rent stabilized properties with relatively low rents. While maintaining affordable neighborhoods in New York City is good news, there is a convergence of other statistical indicators for the same geographic area that demonstrates signs of distress. The frequency with which our neighborhoods here in the west Bronx color red on maps indicating various forms of housing, social and economic distress gave us the idea of this forum, Envisioning the Future of the Red Zone, where we will address this convergence of negative indicators and offer a framework for discussing what it means for these neighborhoods going forward.

Following a presentation of neighborhood and borough level data and maps (including brand new neighborhood data from the 2008 Housing and Vacancy Survey), University Neighborhood Housing Program will host an interactive panel and audience discussion that will focus on the ways that the institutions, lenders, public agencies and community groups that are responsible for the successful community development efforts of the past three decades can work together to envision a future that builds upon that success for the Red Zone.

Panel:
• Roger Hayes, UNHP Board (Moderator)
• Raquel Batista, Northern Manhattan Coalition for Immigrant Rights
• Nancy Biberman, WHEDCo
• Peter Mosbacher, Amalgamated Bank
• Xavier Rodriguez, Bronx Community Board 5 District Manager

Please respond to UNHP by June 8. The forum is free, but space is limited. You can fax this form to us at (718) 933-3624, email your response to mail [at] unhp.org, or call us at (718) 933-3101.

Apartment Building Sales Plummet in the Bronx (plus some bonus demographics)

A new housing report for real estate firm Massey Knakal shows the dramatic drop in the number of sales of apartment buildings across the City, especially in the Bronx. In an article in Crain's New York Business, the Chairman of Massey Knakal blames the drop on the reduction in supply, as "discretionary sellers are not putting their property on the market," but he warns that in the coming years prices will drop as distressed sellers will have no other option but to sell for less.

Meanwhile, the reports authors acknowledge the Bronx market is riskier than the other boroughs:

Brooklyn and Queens held up better than the Bronx in part because during uncertain economic times, there is a “flight to quality,” said John Cicero, managing principal at Miller Cicero. “Investors want to go to secure, more established neighborhoods.” Institutional investors didn’t start buying multi-family buildings in the Bronx until about six years ago, noted Mr. Knakal.

University Neighborhood Housing Program also tracks sales of residential apartment buildings in the Bronx, and we had similar findings. Prices haven't dropped, but the number of sales has gone from a peak of 260 in the first half of 2007, to 138 in the second half of 2007, to 132 in the first of 2008 and 64 in the second half of 2008. A drop in prices can be expected for the exact reason Mr. Knakal mentioned, as is the case with Botanical Square and a few other properties bought at the peak of the market by private equity investor Hudson Realty Capital.

For a great long term perspective on real estate booms and bust in New York City neighborhoods, don't miss the Furman Center's latest State of New York City’s Housing and Neighborhoods, which was released by the NYU research center just this month. Among the many tidbits you'll discover is that certain Bronx neighborhoods fared well during the last bust in the early 1990s, perhaps because they were still making up for the devastation of earlier decades (page 14). There is a related fascinating case study of the Morrisania/Crotona area (Bronx Community District 3) on page 20 showing price appreciations through every boom and bust period since 1974 (though they were pretty much starting from ground zero).

There is also a section on sustainability showing how the Bronx produces a lot of waste per capita and recycles very little.

At the end there is the heavy demographic and housing data, mostly based on 2005-2007 American Community Survey from the U.S. Census. Many of the findings are the same old story: Bronx neighborhoods have the highest rates of poverty, lowest educational attainment, lowest homeownership rates, the youngest population, etc.

But there was at least one surprise: none of the neighborhoods with the highest incidence of elevated blood levels in children are in the Bronx. Instead, neighborhoods with converted manufacturing loft space (SoHo and Williamsburg) rank tops in the City.

One other interesting stat: the three most densely populated community districts outside of Manhattan are in the West Bronx. Here are the top 10 in the City with the number of persons per square mile:

1. Upper East Side (MN) - 105,900
2. Lower East Side/Chinatown (MN) - 99,100
3. Morningside Heights/Hamilton Heights (MN) - 98,800
4. Stuyvesant Town/Turtle Bay (MN) - 88,100
5. Central Harlem (MN) - 86,100
6. Kingsbridge Heights/Bedford (BX 7) - 77,000
7. Highbridge/Concourse (BX 4) - 75,800
8. Washington Heights/Inwood (MN) - 73,700
9. Fordham/University Heights (BX 5) - 73,000
10. Upper West Side (MN) - 66,000

Awaiting the 2010 Census: An End of the Year Demographic Teaser!

I know things are slow in the West Bronx news-wise, so in addition to Jordan's editorial request, here's an end of the year treat for all of you data-geeks like me:

The Census Bureau, in addition to gearing up for 2010, has been keeping busy all decade long with the American Community Survey which tracks smaller samples of the population in various geographies. Because of the small sample size, much of the data isn’t so reliable, and for New York City, there isn’t much below the county level. Recently, the Census’s American Fact Finder website has released 3-year estimates for 2005-2007. While the data isn’t quite as current as the 2007 ACS, it has a much larger sample size than the one year ACS and should be considered more reliable (although still nowhere close to the decennial census).

I took a quick look at some of the data on immigration to uncover certain trends to expect in 2010, and to verify some of what we see in our neighborhoods everyday. Overall, the foreign-born population in the Bronx is estimated to have jumped 12.5% since 2000 from 385,827 to 434,251. Foreign-born residents now likely comprise 31.7% of the borough’s population, up from 29.0% in 2000. Citywide, the Bronx now is estimated to have 14.3% of all foreign born residents, up from 13.4% in 2000.

Where are the big changes coming from? Counteracting drop-offs in the Irish- and Yugoslavian-born populations are dramatic increases in West African, Dominican and Mexican populations (no big surprises here). Almost half of the 60,500 West African-born NYC residents live in the Bronx, including 63% of those born in Ghana (estimates show about 12,600 Ghanaian-born Bronx residents).

In 2000, Manhattan still had more Dominican-born residents than the Bronx, but there is little doubt that this is still the case. Estimates show the Dominican-born population in the Bronx has grown from 124,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 in recent years, while Manhattan’s share has dropped from 125,000 to 109,000 (many fleeing the rapidly rising rents in upper Manhattan). About 39% of all NYC residents born in the D.R. live in the Bronx.

It comes as little surprise that the Mexican-born population in the Bronx has grown dramatically. In fact, estimates show it has virtually doubled since 2000 to over 38,000. The overall number of Central American-born Bronx residents has shot up a third from 46,000 to nearly 62,000, or about 22% of the City’s total.

The Bangladeshi-born population has also swelled from about 4,000 to an estimated 7,500. In addition, the relatively small Middle Eastern-born community (referred to on the Census as Western Asia) has grown 75% from 2,250 to almost 4,000.

Feel free to post any questions about this data or a specific question about a country I didn’t mention. Happy New Year, everyone!

Update
I posted this in the comment section based on a question about changes in the Puerto Rican population:

I was able to pull out corresponding tables from 2000 and the 2005-2007 ACS estimates called "HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN BY SPECIFIC ORIGIN" which shows us what people are identifying as (as opposed to where they were born). According to these data sets, the Bronx had a net gain of 215 residents who identified as Puerto Rican. As a percentage of total residents this is a drop of .6%, and as a percentage of all Latinos, this is a drop of 3.6%. Across the five boroughs, Manhattan and Brooklyn lost 2,500 and 10,300 Puerto Ricans respectively, while Queens and Staten Island gained 2,500 and 6,900 respectively. Obviously, the biggest changes are in Brooklyn and Staten Island, the latter of which increased its self-identifying Puerto Rican population by nearly 25%.

Overall there was a net loss of 3,323 Puerto Ricans in NYC, while the surrounding counties (Fairfield in CT, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic and Union in NJ, and Dutchess, Nassau, Orange, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester in NY) picked up about 20,000. Westchester had the biggest numerical increase at close to 7,000 (similar to the increase in Staten Island) while Morris, Bergen and Orange counties has the largest percentage increases.

From another angle, Puerto Ricans comprise a smaller share of all Latinos in virtually every county since 2000 -- the exceptions being Morris County NJ and Manhattan, where it's simply a case of other Latinos leaving faster than Puerto Ricans. The biggest estimated growth among Latino groups in the Bronx? In order: Domincans +80,772, Mexicans +27,216, Ecuadorians +10,415, and Hondurans +6,877.

Any other questions?

No Surprise Here: Bronx Picks Up Most Manhattanites Since 2001

Opinion from Guest-Blogger Gregory Lobo Jost

The IRS has recently released data on net-migration between Manhattan and the outer boroughs, confirming demographic trends we're familiar with: the Bronx is the largest recipient of folks moving out of Manhattan (a net gain of almost 24,000 between 2001 and 2006). Of course, the press (the original article on the Observer and a follow-up blog post on Gothamist) has mostly missed the point, thinking of the trend in relation to the record sale price averages being recorded in Manhattan.

Sure, there are a number of wealthy families moving to Riverdale, but that number would never compete with the number of well-off moving to Brooklyn.

As most West Bronx Blog readers know, the largest influx of Manhattanites into the Bronx are lower income, working class families (often Domincan) from Washington Heights, Inwood, Harlem and East Harlem. 2005 Census data showed the Bronx was the only borough that incoming households from other NY counties made less than those already living here.

Of course, as some of those who've posted on Gothamist have mentioned, the Bronx is barely affordable to these new-comers, as well. It's all part of a larger affordability crisis New York City is experiencing.

Finally, on an unrelated note, the Riverdale Press has a great editorial on water rates.

More and More Dominicans Coming from the Island of.... Manhattan!

Regarding the Daily News story on the increase in the Dominican population in the Bronx(mentioned in the previous post), one point that bears emphasis is that much of the influx is not coming only from the Island of Hispañola, but also from the north end of the Island of Manhattan.

"Dominicans are coming not only from their native island, but from Washington Heights, a longtime Dominican enclave. 'In a few years from now, there's not going to be a Washington Heights,' said David Medina, regional manager at Health Plus, a yearly sponsor of the Grand Dominican Parade. 'Everyone's moving here to the Bronx.'

In mentioning that "foreign-born Dominicans are among the poorest groups in the Bronx," the article reinforces the notion that (contrary to what the New York Times Real Estate section wants you to believe) the vast majority of people moving to the Bronx are low-income. Instead of "the gentrification of the South Bronx" or young wealthy Manhattanites moving to the west Bronx corridor, it's poor families from Washington Heights, East Harlem and other gentrifying neighborhoods who are being forced into the Bronx; the thousands of Dominicans moving to the Bronx is an excellent example of this real trend.

(By the way, if you want to see actual demographic evidence against the gentrification of the Bronx, check out the second chart on page 14 of the UNHP report on Shrinking Affordability.)